USDA Predicts Continuing Food Price Inflation in 2022, Relief Thereafter


The grocery food price inflation rate in June was 12.2 percent higher than during the corresponding month in 2021.  Restaurant food was up 7.7 percent.  In a July 25th report, USDA forecast an increase in food-at-home of between 10 and 12 percent.  Restaurant prices will increase by 6 to 8 percent with an average for all foods ranging from 8.5 percent to 9 percent over 2022.


USDA economists expect inflation to decline in 2023 with a three to four percent increase in food-away-from-home and between two and three percent for meals prepared and consumed in the family setting.


Economists attribute sustained inflation to disruption in the supply chain, fuel and labor costs, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the action taken by the Federal Reserve to restrain inflation.  It is to be expected that there will be a delay before any measurable beneficial effect of the combined two-month raise of 1.5 percent in the interest rate as imposed by the Federal Reserve.