USDA-WASDE FORECAST #630 NOVEMBER 9th 2022

11/09/2022

OVERVIEW

In a preamble to the May WASDE Report, the USDA cautioned that events in Eastern Europe following the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation would have unpredictable consequences. This observation is still relevant in November especially after the vacillation by Russia over the Black Sea agreement. It is evident that the 2022 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. Export of commodities including corn, wheat and oilseeds has resumed at a low level. It is questioned whether Ukraine has been able to ship the remainder of the 2021 crop before the reduced 2022 harvest is transported by rail westward and to eastern ports still in operation. This situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution despite ocean shipments from the Black Sea ports resuming, although subject to the whims of the President of the Russian Federation.

 

The November 2022 WASDE adjusted corn and soybean data from October for the 2022 season consistent with harvest data to date with 90 percent of corn and 95 percent of soybeans in farm silos and elevators. The November WASDE projections for the acreages of corn and soybeans planted were retained from October, with corn planted on 88.6 million acres and soybeans on 87.5 million acres.

 

The November 2022 WASDE projection of corn yield based on harvest to date was raised to 172.3 bushels per acre from 171.9 bushels per acre in the October WASDE. By comparison yield was 175.8 bushels per acre in 2021. The estimate of soybean yield was raised to 50.2 bushels per acre from 49.8 bushels per acre in the October WASDE. Yield was 51.2 bushels per acre in 2021.

 

The November 2022 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was raised 0.9 percent from 1,172 million bushels to 1,182 million bushels assuming final production level, domestic use and exports. The USDA raised the projected ending stock for soybeans by 9.0 percent to 220 million bushels. The ending stocks for corn and soybeans will be finalized in the December WASDE with the 2022 harvest complete and with greater clarity on volume of exports and domestic use.

 

The November 2022 WASDE projection retained the price of corn at $6.80 per bushel. The projected price for soybeans was held at 1,400 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was raised $10 to $400 per ton. All three of the price projections deviate from the November 9th CME quotations for December and November delivery of corn and soybean meal respectively.

 

Projections included in the November 2022 WASDE reports reflect the most likely impacts of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area and profound destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower by Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages.

 

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities during the current market year despite drought and COVID-related slowing of economic activity and demand.

 

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS based on published USDA data.

CORN

Based on known 2022 data, the projected corn harvest for 2022 was increased 0.3 percent from the October WASDE to 13,930 million bushels compared to 15,062 million bushels in 2021. The U.S. 2022 harvest is projected to be 8.0 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was increased by 25 million bushels or 0.5 percent to 5,300 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was held at 5,275 million bushels consistent with lower domestic demand for E-10 and other blends despite relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions but with reduced consumption due to escalation in fuel cost. Projected corn exports were unchanged at 2,150 million bushels based on recent and projected shipments to China and Mexico and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe. Ending stocks were projected 0.9 percent higher from the October WASDE to 1,182 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was unchanged from the October WASDE Report at 680 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9th after release of the WASDE the CME quotation for December delivery was 665 cents per bushel, down 4.0 percent from the quotation on October 12th for current month delivery and 2.2 percent below the November USDA projection.

 

NOVEMBER 2022 WASDE #630 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2022 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

80.8 m acres

(88.6 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 91.2% of acres harvested)

Yield

172.3 bushels per acre

(was 171.9 bushels per acre in the October WASDE.)

Beginning Stocks

1,377 m. bushels

Production

13,930 m. bushels

Imports

50 m. bushels

Total Supply

15,357 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,300 m. bushels

34.5%

Food & Seed

1,450 m bushels

 9.4%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,275 m. bushels

34.4%

Domestic Use

12,025 m. bushels

78.3%

Exports

2,150 m. bushels

14.0%

Ending Stocks

1,182 m. bushels

7.7 %

Ending Stock-to-domestic use ratio

9.8%

(Was 10.2 percent in the October WASDE Report)

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 680 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the October WASDE Report)

 

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL.

Based on crop progress data the USDA raised the projection for the 2022 soybean crop by 0.8 percent to 4,346 million bushels with an estimated yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. With respect to use parameters, crushings were increased by 10 million bushels to 2,245 million bushels with exports unchanged at 2,045 million bushels. This is despite concerns over availability of oilseeds from Eastern Europe. There is speculation over orders from China for the 2022-2023 market year. This is attributed to presumed reduced requirements for imported ingredients required for animal feed and the reality that traders in China are obligated to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. Prior to 2018, China, our largest trading partner for agricultural commodities imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

 

Ending stocks were raised 9.0 percent or 20 million bushels to 220 million bushels from the October Report

 

The USDA November projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2022 harvest was unchanged from the October WASDE Report to 1,400 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for November 2022 delivery was 1,461 cents per bushel, up 66 cents or 4.7 percent higher compared to the October 12th 2021 quotation for same month delivery and 61 cents per bushel or 4.4 percent higher than the November WASDE projection of 1,400 cents per bushel.

 

NOVEMBER 2022 WASDE #630 PROJECTION FOR THE 2022 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

Harvest Area

86.6 m acres

(87.5 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage)

Yield

50.2 bushels per acre

(Was 49.8 bushels per acre in the October WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

274 m. bushels

(Was 240 million bushels in the September WASDE)

Production

4,346 m. bushels

Imports

15 m. bushels

Total Supply

4,634 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

2,245 m. bushels

48.5%

Exports

2,045 m. bushels

44.1%

Seed

102 m. bushels

 2.2%

Residual

22 m. bushels

0.5%

Total Use

4,414 m. bushels

95.3%

Ending Stocks

220 m. bushels

4.7%

(Up 20 million bushels from the October 2022 WASDE)

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: 1,400 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the October 2022 WASDE Report)

 

The projected supply of soybean meal was increased from October consistent with a 0.5 percent rise in crushings to a production of 52.839 million tons consistent with current production driven by export demand and domestic consumption for livestock and soy oil for food and biodiesel. The projection of domestic use was increased 0.6 percent to 39.70 million tons. Exports were unchanged at 13.7 million tons. Ending stock was lowered 22.2 percent to 0.35 million tons. The USDA raised the ex plant price of soybean meal $10 per ton to $400 per ton.

 

At close of trading on November 9th the CME quotation for December 2022 delivery of soybean meal was $418 per ton, up 1.0 percent or $4 per ton compared to the October 12th CME quotation and $18 per ton or 4.5 percent higher than the November WASDE projection of $400 per ton.

 

NOVEMBER 2022 WASDE #630 PROJECTION OF SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

 

Beginning Stocks

0.311 m. tons

Production

52.839 m. tons

Imports

0.600 m. tons

Total Supply

53.750 m. tons

Domestic Use

39.700 m. tons

Exports

13.700 m. tons

Total Use

53.400 m. tons

Ending Stocks

0.350 m. tons

  1. = million

 

Average Price ex plant:$400 per ton (Up $10 per ton from the October 2022 WASDE Report)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

 

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast fractionally lower at 1,459.5 million tons. This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, lower trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as declines for the EU, South Africa, Philippines, and Nigeria are partly offset by increases for Angola, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey, and Senegal. Corn production in the EU is down based on a decline for Hungary. South Africa is reduced based on lower expected area. Barley production is lowered for Argentina but raised for Australia and the EU”.

 

“Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for South Africa. Corn imports are reduced for Vietnam, Algeria, and Turkey. For 2021/22, corn exports for Argentina are cut for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based on shipments observed through October. For 2022/23, barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for Argentina and Russia. Barley imports are reduced for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting declines for Nigeria and South Africa that are partly offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global corn ending stocks, at 300.8 million tons, are down 0.4 million”.

 

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 645.6 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month. Lower soybean, sunflower seed, and cottonseed production is partly offset by higher rapeseed. Global soybean production is down 0.5 million tons to 390.5 million, mainly on lower production for Argentina. Area harvested for Argentina is reduced reflecting in- country estimates. Sunflower seed production is reduced for Ukraine on lower reported yields. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.0 million tons to 84.8 million on higher yields for Australia and the EU”.

 

“Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 121.9 million tons, up 1.4 million. Soybean stocks account for most of the change with an increase to China’s stocks based on a revision to 2021/22 imports. Another notable oilseed change includes lower palm oil production for Malaysia, which is reduced 1.0 million tons to 18.8 million. With reduced Malaysian palm oil supply and no change in exports, ending stocks are lower”.

 

Factor: Million m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

1,460*

646

Supply

1,794

759

World Trade

225

198

Use

1,467

535

Ending Stocks

326

122

*Values rounded to billion metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)


































































































































































































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