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USDA-WASDE FORECAST #634, MARCH 8^th 2023

OVERVIEW

The USDA understandably retained values for the production of corn and soybeans for the March #634 edition of the WASDE to reflect actual corn and soybean production, revised export projections and consequential changes in ending stocks and market prices.

With respect to the World situation it is evident that the 2022/3 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. The situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution despite initiation of ocean shipments from the Black Sea ports, although this is subject to the whims of the President of the Russian Federation.

The March 2023 WASDE predictably retained actual corn and soybean harvest data for the 2022 season, with corn harvested from 79.2 million acres and soybeans from 86.3 million acres.

The March 2023 WASDE value for corn yield based on actual harvest data was held at 173.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 175.8 bushels per acre in 2021. The estimate of soybean yield was held at 49.5 bushels per acre. Yield was 51.2 bushels per acre in 2021.

The March 2023 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was raised 5.9 percent from 1,267 million bushels to 1,342 million bushels with reduced exports. The USDA lowered the projected ending stock for soybeans by 6.7 percent to 210 million bushels.

The March 2023 WASDE projection reduced the projected price of corn to $6.60 per bushel. The projected price for soybeans was unchanged at 1,430 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was raised $15 per ton to $465 per ton. The price projections for soybeans and soybean meal deviated from the March 8^th CME quotations for March delivery of corn and soybean meal respectively.

Projections included in the March 2023 WASDE report reflect the most recent estimates of commodity production in the Southern Hemisphere. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area and following extensive destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities during the current market year despite drought and taking into effect relaxation of COVID restrictions on consumer and demand.

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS based on published USDA data.

CORN

Based on current 2023 data, the corn harvest for 2022 was retained at 13,730 million bushels compared to 15,062 million bushels in 2021. The U.S. 2022 harvest is projected to be 9.3 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was held at 5,275 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” Category was unchanged at 5,250 million bushels consistent with current demand for E-10 and other blends. Gasoline consumption is restrained by prevailing high prices and general inflation. Projected corn exports were reduced 3.9 percent to 1,850 million bushels, based on recent orders, the volume of projected shipments to China and Mexico and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and drought in Argentine. Ending stocks were projected to be 5.9 percent higher from the February 2023 WASDE to 1,342 million bushels.

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was down 10 cents per bushel from the February 2023 WASDE Report to 660 cents per bushel. At 16H00 on March 8^th after release of the WASDE the CME quotation for March delivery was 636 cents per bushel, down 6.2 percent from the quotation on February 8^th for February delivery and 3.6 percent below the March USDA projection.

MARCH 2023 WASDE #634 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2022 CORN HARVEST:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 660 cents per bushel. (Down 10c per bushel from the February WASDE Report)

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL.

Based on actual harvest data the USDA held the projection for the 2022 soybean crop at 4,276 million bushels with an estimated yield of 49.5 bushels per acre from 86.3 million acres. With respect to use parameters, crush volume was lowered 0.4 percent to 2,210 million bushels. Projected exports were up 1.3 percent to 2,015 million bushels. There is uncertainty over orders from China for the 2022-2023 market year. This is attributed to a presumption of lower requirements for animal feed despite changes in COVID policy. In reality traders in China are obligated to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested. Ending stocks were lowered by 15 million bushels to 210 million bushels from the February 2023 report.

The USDA March 2023 projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2022 harvest was unchanged from the February 2023 WASDE Report at 1,430 cents per bushel. At 16H00 on March 8^th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for March 2023 delivery was 1,526 cents per bushel, up 0.4 percent compared to the February 8^th quotation for February delivery and 6.7 percent higher than the March 2023 WASDE projection of 1,430 cents per bushel.

MARCH 2023 WASDE #634 PROJECTION FOR THE 2022 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,430 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the February 2023 WASDE Report)

The projected supply of soybean meal was reduced 0.2 percent from February 2023 to 52.539 million tons consistent with a reduced crush of crush of 2,220 million bushels of soybeans. Production is driven by export demand and domestic consumption for livestock and for soy oil for both food and biodiesel. The projection of domestic use was reduced to 39.4 million tons. Exports were unchanged at 13.7 million tons. Ending stock was retained at 350,000 tons. The USDA raised the ex plant price of soybean meal $15 per ton to $465 per ton.

At 16H00 on March 8^th the CME quotation for March 2023 delivery of soybean meal was $497 per ton, up 3.1 percent compared to the February 8^th CME quotation and $32 per ton or 6.9 percent higher than the March 2023 WASDE projection of $465 per ton.

MARCH 2023 WASDE #634 PROJECTION OF SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

1. = million

Average Price ex plant:$465 per ton (Up $15 per ton from the February 2023 WASDE Report)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

• For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
• For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the March WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.2 million tons lower to 1,439.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increases for India and Paraguay. For Argentina, production is cut as continued heat and dryness during February and into early March reduce yield prospects for late-planted corn. India corn production is higher based on official government data. Foreign barley production is higher reflecting increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Argentina. Foreign sorghum production is lowered with declines for Australia and Argentina”.

The USDA report continued “Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for India, Ukraine, and Paraguay, with reductions for Argentina and the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Morocco, Peru, and Taiwan. Sorghum imports are lowered for China based on export cuts for Australia and Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting declines for Ukraine and Brazil that are partly offset by an increase for India. Global corn ending stocks, at 296.5 million tons, are up 1.2 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2022/23 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, and stocks. Global oilseed production is reduced 6.8 million tons to 629.9 million, mainly on lower soybean and sunflower seed production for Argentina partly offset by higher Australia rapeseed production. Soybean production for Argentina is lowered 8.0 million tons to 33.0 million on dry and hot weather conditions. Uruguay soybean production is also lowered 0.2 million tons to 2.1 million. Australia rapeseed production is increased 1.0 million tons to 8.3 million on higher area and yield”.

“Global oilseed trade is up 1.9 million tons to 199.9 million on higher rapeseed and soybean exports. Rapeseed exports are increased for Australia and Ukraine, in line with higher imports for the EU and Pakistan. Soybean exports are higher for Brazil and the United States, and imports are higher for Argentina to partly offset production losses. Soybean imports are also raised for Iran and Turkey”.

“Global 2022/23 oilseed crush is lowered 3.3 million tons to 526.3 million, mainly on a slower-than-expected soybean crush pace for China and lower available soybean and sunflower seed supplies for Argentina. Lower Argentina vegetable oil exports are offset by higher shipments of palm oil from Malaysia and sunflower seed oil from Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.0 million tons to 100.0 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States that are partly offset by higher stocks for China”.

*Values rounded to billion metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)