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On March 14^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous February 14^th 2022 report.

Projected egg production for 2022 was revised upward by 0.8 percent from from the February Report to 7,781 million dozen This will be 3.1 percent lower than in 2021 due to depopulation of approximately 44 million hens infected with HPAI from early spring extending through mid-December. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was increased by 0.9 percent despite higher prices, to 279.0 eggs but down 3.5 eggs (1.2 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was retained at 282 cents per dozen. This was 138 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 4^th Quarter of 2022.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that is impacted by now moderating inflation with a 0.4 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index in February and 6.0 percent compared to the corresponding month in 2021. Groceries were up 10.2 percent from February 2022. Eggs represented a standout among foods with retail price for conventional shell eggs up 55.4 percent from (pre-HPAI) February 2022. Price declined 6.7 percent in February compared to the preceding month. Flock size may be limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins and result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses in the ongoing avian influenza epornitic that may undergo a resurgence late during the 2^nd quarter of 2023 or thereafter; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine; limited export volume of eggs and the duration of current high domestic consumer demand.

The USDA projected egg production in 2023 to be down 0.7 percent from the February Report to 8,035 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 285.9 eggs, down 1.5 eggs or 0.5 percent from the February projection. 

In 2022 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 226.5 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 4.3 percent of production, down 42.2 percent from 392 million dozen or 4.9 percent of production in 2021. During 2022 egg imports, some in shell form but predominantly products attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen in 2021. The forecast for 2023 is 26.0 million dozen almost unchanged from 2022.

March 2023 data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 14^th 2023

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