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Updated May 2023 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

On May 18^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous April 17^th 2022 report.

Projected egg production for 2022 was unchanged from from the April Report at 7,781 million dozen This will be 3.1 percent lower than in 2021 due to depopulation of approximately 44 million hens infected with HPAI from early spring extending through mid-December 2022. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was also unchanged at 279.0 eggs but down 3.5 eggs (1.2 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was retained at 282 cents per dozen. This was 138 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 4^th Quarter of 2022.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that is impacted by moderating inflation with a rise of 4.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index in April coupled with a 2.3 percent Producer Price Index for the month. Eggs represented a standout among foods despite retail price for conventional shell eggs up 55.4 percent from (pre-HPAI) February 2022 through February 2023. The 2023 Midwest cartoned price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2013 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th.

Restoration in flock size is proceeding slowly, limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement and the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. The cost of ingredients will influence margins and may result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers as margins shrink through summer. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses in the ongoing avian influenza epornitic that may undergo a resurgence late during the 3^rd quarter of 2023 or thereafter; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine and drought in South America; increasing export volume of eggs and the duration of current high domestic consumer demand.

The USDA projected that egg production in 2023 will be down >0.1 percent from the April Report to 7,969 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 285.1 eggs, down 0.6 egg or 0.2 percent from the April projection. 

The forecast for 2024 includes a production of 8,280 million dozen, up 3.9 percent from 2023. Consumption will attain 293.2 per capita up 8.1 eggs or 2.8 percent above the projection for 2023. This will naturally depress prices with the NY. Large price dropping by 43.9 cents per dozen or 23.3 percent from the average for 2023.

In 2022 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 226.5 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 4.3 percent of production, down 42.2 percent from 392.0 million dozen or 4.9 percent of production in 2021. During 2022 egg imports, some in shell form but predominantly products attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen in 2021. The forecast for 2023 is for 26.0 million dozen almost unchanged from 2022.

May 2023 data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released May 18^th 2023

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