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Updated November 2023 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

On November 16^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024. Production, consumption and prices were only slightly revised from the previous October 18^th 2023 report.

Projected egg production for 2023 was unchanged from the October Report at 7,885 million dozen This will be 1.3 percent higher than in 2022 due to replacement of a proportion of the 44 million hens depleted due to HPAI over the period extending from early spring through mid-December 2022. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2023 will be 0.1 percent higher than in the October report to 280.9 eggs but up 1.9 eggs (0.7 percent) from 2022. The projected average 2023 benchmark New York bulk unit price was increased by 5.3 percent from October to 193 cents per dozen. This was 31.6 percent lower than in 2022 attributed to a comparison with unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 2^nd Quarter of 2023.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is impacted by moderating inflation. The 2023 Midwest in-carton wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th attaining $1.52 on November 10^th This was above the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest run October cost of 80 cents per dozen plus processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.40 cents per dozen delivered to a distribution center.

Restoration in flock size at a rate of approximately 0.5 million per week is progressing but limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement and the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. The cost of ingredients and lack of working capital will influence margins and may result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers since losses were incurred through summer up to mid-fall. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses in the fourth quarter due to a reemergence of avian influenza; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by supply from Brazil and Ukraine; exports of eggs and products and the duration of higher domestic consumer demand.

The forecast for 2024 includes a production of 8,140 million dozen, up 3.2 percent from 2023. Consumption will attain 289.0 per capita, up a speculative 8.1 eggs or 2.9 percent above the projection for 2023. This will naturally depress prices with the NY-Large price dropping by 47.6 cents per dozen or 26.0 percent from the average for 2023.

In 2022 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 226.5 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 4.3 percent of production, down 42.2 percent from 392.0 million dozen or 4.9 percent of production in 2021. During 2022 egg imports as a result of HPAI depopulation, some in shell form but predominantly products, attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen or 26.4 percent from 2021.

Over the first nine months of 2023 shell egg exports attained 67.1 million dozen, up 27.5 percent compared to the corresponding nine months of 2022. Egg products were up 24.4 percent to 22,817 metric tons compared to the same period in 2022. Over the first nine months of 2023 exports of shell eggs and products combined represented 2.2 percent of U.S. production

October 2023 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released November 16^th 2023

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